Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi

Yazarlar: Ahmet ŞENGÖNÜL, Berrak TEKGÜN

Konular:İktisat

Anahtar Kelimeler:Turkey,Phillips Curve,İnflation,Unemployment,Panel ARDL

Özet: In this study, it is intended to investigate whether the long term and short term relationship between unemployment and inflation is comply with Phillips curve theory for Turkey and its twenty-six sub districts. Although the unemployment is a macroeconomic issue in Turkey, it is a fact that needs to be investigated locally. Therefore, rather than investigating a Phillips curve on a whole economy, the idea of there are various Phillips curves exist for each individual region can be promoted. In this thesis, we propose that there are various Phillips curve relations for all Level-2 twenty-six regions and different money policies that reduce unemployment can be applied for each individual region, accordingly. In this study, inflation, unemployment rate, and GDP data between 2005 and 2011 years are used and inflation, unemployment and related gaps are filtered with Hodrick-Prescott method and analyzed, respectively. In this study used for Panel ARDL method that is used for improving the data sets for the economies like Turkey where it is challenging to acquire data for both short and long term results. Based on the obtained results, in short term for Turkey, there is a negative relation between inflation deficit and unemployment rate that validates the Phillips curve estimation, In local basis, 17 out of 26 regions have the Phillips curve relation which shows statistically meaningful and negative relation.

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