Ekonomi TEK

Yazarlar: Aslıhan ATABEK DEMİRHAN, H. Burcu GÜRCİHAN YÜNCÜLER

Konular:İktisat

Anahtar Kelimeler:Firm level data analysis,Uncertainty,Employment and labour market,Turkish economy

Özet: Using a unique matched data set of corporate balance sheets and a survey of tendencies, we investigate the relationship between employment and uncertainty in this paper. The balance-sheet data are collected by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, are annual and drawn from a set of Turkish companies over the 2007-2014 period. The tendency surveys track the firms’ current and expected performances and perceptions. The survey results are monthly and are used to measure uncertainties related to production and domestic and foreign demand over the year. The effect of alternative measures of uncertainty are examined by way of panel model estimations. Estimation results indicate that while foreign demand uncertainty has a significant negative effect on employment, the effect of production and domestic demand are insignificant. We find that a one standard deviation rise in foreign demand uncertainty lowers employment by around one percent. We discuss that those firms with smaller size and with more credit constraints are more sensitive to uncertainty.

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