19 Mayıs Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Yazarlar: Mustafa GÜLLÜ, Zeki KARTAL

Konular:İktisat

DOI:10.52835/19maysbd.849978

Anahtar Kelimeler:Renewable Energy Sources,Forecasting,ARIMA

Özet: The future of renewable energy, which has begun to compete with conventional energy as a result of recent developments, has become an interesting issue in recent years. Since the United Nations Sustainable Development goals are determined for 2030 and Turkey has offered to the Paris Convention of 30 September 2015 the targets for electricity generation from renewable energy for the 2021-2030 period in the Intended National Determined Contribution, the forecast year was chosen as 2030. In the study, the 2030 estimation of the installed capacities of each renewable energy types was made using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology, and the 2030 employment estimation was made with the JEDI model (Jobs and Economic Development Impact), which is a spreadsheet-based model. As a result; Turkey's hydroelectric power and solar energy will reach Intended National Determined Contribution’s target and wind energy is expected to be much closer. In addition, it was concluded that wind energy investments and incentives should be increased a little more in order to reach the target. However, the installed capacity is expected to increase over time of all types of renewable energy in Turkey. It is predicted that the energy types that are expected to create the most employment among renewable energy plants in 2030 will be hydraulic energy, solar energy and wind energy, respectively.

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