Journal of Yaşar University

Yazarlar: Çağatay BAŞARIR, İbrahim Murat BİCİL, Özer YILMAZ

Konular:Sosyal

Anahtar Kelimeler:Consumer Confidence Index,Macroeconomic Variables,Financial Variables

Özet: The financial crises experienced by countries affect the confidence of both consumers and investors in the economies of the country. The economies, which have been experiencing constant difficulties since the Great Depression of 1929, once again entered into a difficult period with the 2008 crisis. In this context, it is important to know the relationship between the Consumer Confidence Index, which is an indicator of consumer confidence in economies, and some macro and financial variables. The positive changes in the variables that may affect the confidence levels of both consumers and investors can lead to an increase in confidence levels in the country's economy. This study was aimed to investigate the relationship between the Consumer Confidence Index with selected macroeconomic and financial variables by using VAR model in Turkey. As a result of the study, a causality relation was determined from the consumer confidence index to the industrial production index and to the consumer confidence index from BIST100, USD Exchange rates and CPI. Moreover, when the results of VAR model are analyzed, it is found that the shock in the USD exchange rate has a negative impact on the consumer confidence index and that the shock in the consumer confidence index has negative effects on the BIST100 index and the dollar exchange rate.

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