Siyaset Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi

Yazarlar: Fatih SAVAŞAN, Fatih YARDIMCIOĞLU, İbrahim DEMİR

Konular:-

Anahtar Kelimeler:Shadow economy,MIMIC estimation method,Tax burden,Government regulation

Özet: Economists have developed a lot of techniques that blend economic theory and statistical/ econometric models to estimate shadow economy. However, many of them utilize only one of the fingerprints the shadow economy leaves behind. MIMIC Model, a technique that has been utilized in estimating the size of shadow economy extensively considers both the causes and the indicators of shadow economy in a model framework, a feature most of the techniques do not possess. Using two sets of time series data, one from 1970 to 2013, the other from 1990 to 2013, and panel data, this study estimates the size of the shadow economy in Turkey. The findings suggest that the shadow economy responds more to the changes in the macroeconomic variables such as unemployment rate and inflation. Some of the models predict that increase in tax burden might be important cause giving rise to shadow economy. As for the size of the shadow economy in Turkey, this study finds that it has downward trend and it is estimated that it is between 25 and 27 percent in 2013

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