Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi

Yazarlar: ["İbrahim KÜLÜNK"]

Konular:-

Anahtar Kelimeler:Makro,Büyüme,Ihracat,Ithalat,Gsyh

Özet: The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between manufacturing industry and growth in the Turkish economy. Manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate, export unit value index, import unit value index and GDP quarterly series for the period 2013Q1 - 2022Q4 are used in the study. Data are obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's EDDS application. Econometric analysis methods were utilized in the study. The method used is the Johansen cointegration test, which is one of the multiple regression analyses. Secondly, the robustness of the model was tested with VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) after the cointegration test. Finally, causality test was applied to the series and the direction of the relationship between the series was estimated. According to the findings of the study it is estimated that there is a positive relationship between manufacturing industry and growth in the long run. This relationship is thought to be supported both directly and through export and import channels. Considering the 93% share of the manufacturing industry in Turkey's foreign trade, the results estimated in the study seem to be consistent.

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