New Trends and Issues Proceedings on Advances in Pure and Applied Sciences
Yazarlar: Konstantin Kunze, Konstantin Kunze
Konular:-
Anahtar Kelimeler:The global economy,Global financial and economic crises,Cycle fluctuations,Depression,Recession,Economic cycles,The prediction of economic crises.
Özet: The evolution of the world economic system is characterized by recurrent global financial and economic crises. The result of the recent crisis from 2008 is the deterioration of the main economic indicators in most countries leading to the global recession. It is difficult to identify the causes of a crisis thereby estimating the a priori factors associated with the crisis. The paper presents the results of a study whose purpose was to analyze the behavior of financial and economic indicators before and during the global financial crisis. Data is retrieved from World Bank Statistics, International Monetary Fund, and Eurostat. Using the index of industrial production of USA, EU and China, the world unemployment rate, the prices of basic commodities in the world markets, and the GDP of the largest countries in the world, the dynamics of the economic performance has been analyzed. National currencies, interest rates set by the Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the net public debt of major economies has been used to examine the dynamics of the financial indicators. To understand the dynamics of the mentioned indicators we found the trend and used harmonic analysis to estimate the deviations from the trend. Harmonic analysis allowed us to determine the parameters of the cycle for each indicator. The results show a sharp decline in both economic and financial indicators during the global financial crisis. The cycles and phase fluctuations in the price of gold resemble cycles and phase fluctuations in the average GDP per capita of the leading economies in the world. Cycle fluctuations of exports of high-tech products are pro-cyclical, but phases are delayed. Cycles of oil price fluctuations do not coincide completely with the cycles of average per capita GDP in the countries studied, and the phases are lagging.