Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi

Yazarlar: Şenol ÇELİK

Konular:-

Anahtar Kelimeler:Kabuklu fındık üretimi,Kabuklu fındık fiyatı,Gecikmesi dağıtılmış model,Koyck modeli

Özet: In this study, the relationbetween shelled nuts production and its price from 1962 to 2013 was analyzed using Koyck approach, one of the distributed lag models. According to Koyck model results, it is determined that production is affected by maximum four years‟ prices backwards, and for an effective impact of the change in hazelnut prices on hazelnut production, an interval of 1.1 years is needed. On the other hand, while a TL 1 increase in shelled nuts prices in the current year increased shelled nuts production 0.031 tons, a TL 1 increase in the prices of previous year increased the production 0.016 tons, a TL 1 increase in the prices of two previous year increased the production 0.0085 tons, a TL 1 increase in the prices of three previous year increased the production 0.0045 tons and a TL 1 increase in shelled nuts prices four years previously caused 0.0023 tons increase in production. It is determined that the change in delayed values of shelled nuts prices, in first, second, third and forth period has a positive effect on production but this effect reduces gradually.

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